Using math and machine learning, researchers predict an early flu peak in Canada and the US

A team of Canadian and American researchers say their method of predicting the rate of infectious disease transmission predicts an earlier peak in flu cases this year.

Using math and machine learning, the researchers analyzed data from late 2015 to September 2024, integrating weather conditions, policy choices and movement patterns (taken from mobile phones) to predict how diseases like flu and COVID-19 might spread.

The team expects that more than 1,600 new flu cases will be confirmed in US laboratories every day by the end of November, almost double the number of cases in the same period last year.

“For the prediction in this report, we used US data, but I think we would say that if we used Canadian data, similar conclusions would be drawn,” said Hao Wang, director of the Interdisciplinary Lab for Mathematical Ecology and Epidemiology at the University. of Alberta.

Wang, who is also a professor and Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in mathematical biosciences, said the team has predicted that the first wave of flu cases this year will come a month earlier than last year.

He said he hopes this information will inform public health officials.

“We hope we can have some influence on decision-making,” he said.

Wang said he and his colleagues have published several papers on their new forecasting approach.

Last year, he and Xiunan Wang, an assistant professor in the mathematics department at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, published an article about it in the peer-reviewed journal SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics.

Junling Ma, a professor of mathematics and statistics at the University of Victoria who was not involved in the U of A team’s research, said he has not examined flu patterns in recent years but is familiar with the model and thinks it it is suitable for capturing the main characteristics of influenza.

“I think if it happens, their model should be able to capture the property of it going up faster and earlier this year, so I would trust their result at this stage,” he said.

He said public health officials can prepare for an earlier flu wave by ensuring there are enough hospital beds available and encouraging people to get flu shots sooner.

According to the federal government, influenza is one of the… top 10 leading causes of death in Canada and causes thousands of hospital admissions each year.

Last year, less than a quarter of Albertans got the flu shot and the province experienced its deadliest flu season in 15 years.

The provincial government announced on Monday that appointments for flu shots will be available from October 15.

Health Minister Adriana LaGrange said at a press conference that the government expects a flu season very similar to last year.

“There are procedures and policies in place to ensure we have the capacity we need,” she said.

André Gagnon, a spokesperson for the Public Health Agency of Canada, said in a statement that it is difficult to predict how the flu will behave, but the flu season usually starts in mid-November, peaks in late December to February and ends in late May.

Gagnon said the public health agency does not use artificial intelligence in its forecasts to predict transmission rates.

“There is currently no evidence that flu cases are increasing sooner than we would expect, but PHAC will continue to monitor and report on a weekly basis,” he said.

Ghada Haggag, a pharmacist who owns and operates All Care Pharmacy in Edmonton’s Capilano neighborhood, said there is a high demand for flu and COVID-19 shots this year — much more than in 2023.

She said people may have experienced vaccine fatigue last year, but many seniors in the region made two vaccination appointments this fall — one for COVID-19 and the flu and the other for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

RSV vaccines are given two weeks before or after COVID-19, as are flu vaccines.