Tennis rankings that really matter at the end of the season? No. 32 and no. 104

Conversations about tennis rankings usually focus on the smallest numbers.

That was the case last week, when Aryna Sabalenka overtook Iga Swiatek for the top spot in the WTA rankings for the second time in her career.

Neither player should expect much change in her daily existence or quality of life. Aside from the bonuses some players receive from sponsors for finishing the season in the top 10 or top 20, the most meaningful ranking races at this time of year involve the scratching and clawing to get in and around No. 32 and No. 32 come. 104.

Why? Finish the year between numbers 25 and 45, and you have a great chance of being seeded at the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the year, which starts in mid-January.

Naomi Osaka returns a shot against Karolina Muchova during the second round of the 2024 US Open (Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Few sports reward their senior class more than tennis. High-ranked players don’t have to play anyone from their ranking environment until the later rounds of a major tournament and are more likely to get byes, which means automatic money and ranking points. Success generates opportunities for more success.

Someone who knows all about this is Naomi Osaka, who played the 2023 Australian Open as an unseeded wildcard in her second tournament since the birth of her daughter. Osaka, a two-time champion in Melbourne, was defeated in the first round by Caroline Garcia, a tough No. 16 seed. A seeded player will not face anyone higher than him until the third round.

At the start of this season’s series of tournaments in Asia, Osaka openly said her goal was to qualify for Melbourne. (And to avoid Caroline Garcia.)

Down the ladder, at 104 or lower, you’ll clinch or chase a spot in the main draw of the Australian Open and the guarantee of around $80,000 (£61,700) that brings. That may not sound like a lot of money compared to the $3 million (£2.3 million) winner’s checks, but it could be life-changing money for players struggling to cover travel costs and pay a coach.

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In October, November and January, a few warm weeks can make a big difference. In the late season, deep runs at Grand Slams and 1000-level tournaments drain the top 20’s energy before the top eight players meet for the Tour Finals in Turin, Italy for the men and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the women.

Then comes Australian Open tune-up time, the buffet of 250- and 500-level tournaments in Australia and New Zealand usually excludes the biggest big names. Both parts of the season offer opportunities for a big jump – or drop – in the rankings, with groups of players all the way down separated by just a few points.

More than 6,500 points separate Sabalenka, the world number 1, from Danielle Collins, who is number 10, in the WTA rankings. Only 714 points separate Osaka at number 59 from Marie Bouzkova, the world number 32. On the ATP Tour, world number 1 Jannik Sinner is 8,350 points ahead of Alex De Minaur at number 10, but number 32 Alexander Bublik is just 572 points ahead of Roman Safiullin at number 60.

Here are just a few of the players who will be paying close attention to the numbers next to their names in the coming weeks – or in January, as injury, the other scourge of late-season tennis, slows progress and/or it causes people look nervously over their shoulders.

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Naomi Osaka

The four-time Grand Slam champion turned 27 on Wednesday. She is at number 59 after ranking at number 833 on January 8 this year. That is progress, but she desperately wanted to get into the top 32 to avoid the bad luck she had this year with draws at the Grand Slams.

After losing to Garcia in Australia, Osaka faced Swiatek at the French Open and lost a classic in the second round. At the US Open, she had to beat No. 10 seed Jelena Ostapenko to reach the second round, where she lost to Karolina Muchova – another player who has fallen down the rankings from the higher echelons and is working her way back up. Muchova eventually reached the semi-finals.

Osaka suffered a back injury during an even match against Coco Gauff in Beijing a few weeks ago, which has ended her attempts to continue climbing for the time being; she announced on Monday that she was out until 2025. Too bad. Osaka played well and the safety of the top 32 seemed within reach. She would need a title and some favorable results for other players to reach Melbourne.

Our Jabeur

Just before the US Open, Osaka knocked 2022 and 2023 Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur out of the National Bank Open in Toronto. It turned out to be Jabeur’s last game of the season, as a lingering shoulder injury and chronic knee problem derailed her 2024 season. In the latest edition of the WTA rankings published on October 28, she finally slipped outside the top 32, meaning she will have work. to do in January’s warm-up tournaments if she wants to be seeded for a return to action in Melbourne.

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Leila Fernandez

Leylah Fernandez competes against China’s Zheng Qinwen in Tokyo last week. (Richard A. Brooks/AFP via Getty Images)

Fernandez, the 2021 US Open finalist, is ranked No. 34 – and don’t think she doesn’t know it. Few players are as attuned to the rankings as the Canadian, who has the guts and intelligence to beat just about anyone on any given day.

She has victories this season against Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Barbora Krejcikova. Krejcikova won Wimbledon just over two weeks after Fernandez beat her in Eastbourne on her way to reaching the final of that grass-court tournament.

She will not be allowed to play another tournament prior to the Billie Jean King Cup Finals, where players do not receive points.

Katie Boulter

About sixteen months ago, Boulter’s ranking was in the high 80s. A tournament victory in San Diego earlier this year saw her rocket up the charts.

Now ranked No. 30, she salvaged a disappointing Asian swing with a semifinal appearance at the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, where she collected 168 points and, importantly, three places in the rankings.

That she fell short in her bid to win her third title of the year may still have given her the confidence needed to secure her place in the safe zone in the coming weeks.

Robin Montgomery

Montgomery, a promising 20-year-old American from Washington, DC is right on the Grand Slam border at number 106.

Injuries to higher-ranked players would likely earn her a spot at the Australian Open if it were to take place next week, and Montgomery is the definition of a player who could use a main draw appearance.

She doesn’t come from wealth and has had a number of injuries that have slowed her progress. She survived qualifying at Wimbledon earlier this year and won her first-round match against Australian Olivia Gadecki. A spot in the main draw in Melbourne would be a good way to start a new year.

Matteo Berrettini

Matteo Berrettini serves against Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon in 2023. (Mike Hewitt / Getty Images)

Berrettini’s career has been largely cursed since his appearance in the 2021 Wimbledon final. Injuries. Covid. Bad draws: the great Italian has endured a bit of everything.

The 28-year-old is ranked at number 41, less than 200 points away from Alexander Bublik at number 32. For Berrettini, that should feel closer than shouting distance. In fact, the only tournaments left are indoors on hard courts in Europe, the perfect place for a player with a booming serve and a sledgehammer of a forehand.

If Berrettini can reposition himself, he will be a player no one wants to play against in the third round as his serve can take the racket out of many players’ hands. On the other hand, he spent last year as the other kind of nightmare draw – a former Grand Slam finalist hovering around the middle of the top 100 – and was defeated in the round of 64 at both Wimbledon and the US Open by Sinner and Taylor Fritz respectively.

Brandon Nakashima

Any player in a prolonged slump needs only to look to Nakashima for inspiration.

Battling Injuries and Loss of Confidence, Nakashima – who made the last 16 at Wimbledon and the US Open – saw his ranking drop to 151 at the end of last season. He has bounced between Challenger events and the main tour events over the past two years, and has returned to No. 38.

That means a solid year of work. He is 120 points out of the top 32. The American has a game that should deliver results on fast indoor hard courts. He’s certainly kicking himself for losing to 39-year-old Stan Wawrinka in Stockholm this month.

Tomas Machac

Machac, the 24-year-old Czech, should be ranked No. 27 in the country’s safety and has all the tools to climb higher. Carlos Alcaraz learned that this month in China, when Machac defeated him in the quarterfinals in Shanghai by hitting his highest level for almost the entire match. (The final score was 7-6, 7-5. Alcaraz is quite good.)

A seeded Machac will be one of the players to keep an eye on in 2025. He has so many tools and so much talent, but he has yet to show it at the biggest events.

His mind can wander and he has said he tends to doubt himself, but if he gets the chance to work his way into tournaments, he could become very interesting.

Chris Eubanks

Wasn’t Chris Eubanks a Wimbledon quarter-finalist a year ago? Yes, he was.

Well, he’s now ranked No. 119 in the world and is back playing Challenger Tour events to try and get close to the main draws again.

He needs wins, especially after that decisive set tiebreak loss to Arthur Rinderknech in the first round of the US Open. He doesn’t need that many; less than 100 points separate him from number 104, Damir Dzumhur of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

(Top photo of Ons Jabeur: Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)