Ontario hospitals can’t handle projected 72% increase in chronic diseases: study

A new study predicts that by 2040, millions more Ontarians will be living with a serious illness.

The report comes from the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health and is published in partnership with the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA).

If action isn’t taken now, Ontario’s hospital system will be unable to cope with the influx of chronic disease cases for the next 20 years, Anthony Dale, OHA president, told CBC Toronto.

“It’s about a radical rethink of our health care system and what we prioritize,” he said. “[We] We need to radically rethink the role of hospitals, and how we can change our broader healthcare system to meet that challenge.”

The study, Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario, predicts that 3.1 million working-age adults in Ontario will be living with a serious illness by 2040, up from 1.8 million in 2020, an increase of 72.2 per cent. That means about one in four adults over the age of 30 have a serious illness and require significant hospital care – up from about one in eight adults in 2002.

These figures are especially concerning because the healthcare system has already faced significant challenges in recent years, said Dr. Laura Rosella, one of the study’s co-authors.

These challenges include an ongoing staffing crisis, inconsistent wait times for surgeries and emergency room closures across the province.

“Everyone knows and feels how stressed the health care system feels right now,” Rosella, an epidemiologist, told CBC Toronto.

“We need to start thinking about new models of care and thinking about how we can provide more care in the community, more effectively, and make sure we reach others in new ways, perhaps in ways we haven’t thought of before.”

According to the study, the significant increase in chronic diseases is largely due to a population that is both aging and growing rapidly.

The authors arrived at their findings by combining age- and sex-specific demographic projections with historical chronic disease trends to model the disease burden in the population into the future.

The number of people over 65 in the province is on track to grow by more than 60 percent, to 4.2 million by 2040. Many of the conditions expected to see major growth in the coming years are related to aging, such as dementia , hearing loss, loss and osteoarthritis.

The report also indicates that Ontario’s population will grow by 36 percent over the next 20 years, with the largest increases occurring among the population aged 65 and older.

Serious illness is also expected to increase significantly among the ‘working population’, the study says – people aged 30 to 64.

Co-authors say more prevention and innovation is needed

The problem is too complex for a single solution, Rosella says, but she believes certain changes should be made to the system as quickly as possible.

“One thing that is very clear is the focus on prevention and early detection,” she said. “Many of these conditions, even though they are associated with aging, are not inevitable. And in fact, delaying the onset of these conditions, even five or 10 years, makes a big difference.”

Investing in new care models and innovations in the healthcare sector is also crucial, Rosella said.

“There is not going to be one drug or one innovation that will address all of this,” she said. “But how can we – if we find one that is effective – ensure that everyone in the population has access to it?”

Dale agreed, calling for an “innovation revolution” in Ontario’s health care system.

“We really need to rely on innovations like artificial intelligence and other technological innovations, and much more, to expand our capacity and capabilities,” he said.

Dale says Ontario is home to some of the largest and most advanced research hospitals in the country, but healthcare innovations need to be better integrated into the system once they are developed.

Hannah Jensen, spokesperson for the Ministry of Health, said in an email that the government is “taking action to build capacity in all corners of the province” as the population is expected to grow at an unprecedented rate over the next decade.

“Our government has launched the largest expansion of interprofessional primary care teams since Ontario was established, connecting an additional 330,000 people to primary care,” she wrote. “[And] our government is digging in the ground to build more than 50 hospital development projects to add 3,000 beds across the province, building on the more than 3,500 hospital beds we have added since 2020.”

Premier Doug Ford also announced Tuesday that the province is launching the second phase of its life sciences strategy to continue growing Ontario as a hub of innovation, technology and research.