Millions of people in Ontario expected to be living with serious illness by 2040: report

The number of adults with serious illness in Ontario is expected to nearly double over 20 years, a new report from the University of Toronto warns.

The research from the university’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, published in partnership with the Ontario Hospital Association, shows that by 2040, millions of Ontarians will be living with a chronic disease.

The study predicts that 3.1 million adults will be living with a serious illness in Ontario by 2040, up from 1.8 million in 2020.

The study authors also predict that by 2040, about one in four adults over the age of 30 will be living with a serious illness requiring significant hospital care, compared to about one in eight people in 2002.

“As we look to the future, it is clear that Ontario has reached a turning point,” said Anthony Dale, president and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association. “Ontario’s health care system is already grappling with rapid population growth, increasingly complex health needs and intense pressure on existing capacity. These findings confirm that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Healthcare in Ontario needs an innovation revolution. Without this the system cannot cope.”

In addition to more people living with serious diseases, researchers predict that the number of diseases a person will live with will also increase significantly.

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They say conditions expected to increase the most are those that increase with age, including osteoarthritis, diabetes and cancer.

Researchers say having multiple chronic conditions is a major driver of demand for healthcare services and is costly for hospitals.

“Planning sustainable and equitable health care that responds to emerging trends requires projections of the rates of chronic disease likely to occur in the future,” said Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and co-author of the study .

“Our projections suggest that more Ontarians will be living with serious illness, and that the number of cases of many chronic conditions will rise. Given these findings, it is clear that new solutions are now needed, including significant efforts in the prevention and management of chronic diseases.”

The study, Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario, represents the latest comprehensive public report to quantify chronic disease and multimorbidity among the Ontario population.

Researchers looked at factors such as age- and gender-specific demographic projections with historical chronic disease trends to model the disease burden in the population in the future.

Canadians are living longer, with life expectancy growing to 81.5 years between 2020 and 2022, which researchers say contributes significantly to the estimated increases, along with underlying structural and social determinants of health and an increase in risk factors for chronic diseases.

Ontario’s population is also expected to grow by 36 percent over the next two decades, with the largest increases occurring in the 65 and older age group.

The study calls on Ontario’s health care system to take immediate action and “aggressively focus on prevention, early detection and effective treatment of chronic diseases.”

The study also calls on Ontario to develop a long-term health care capacity plan so the province can meet the needs of its rapidly growing and aging population, and to expand services that support and encourage seniors to age at home become.

“Over the past decades, biomedical and technological innovations have driven clinical improvements, cost savings and improved access to care in hospitals,” Dale said.

“And now artificial intelligence, gene therapy and personalized medicine are showing amazing potential. By working together and embracing innovation in all its forms, we can create a future with fewer diseases, better treatments and universal access to care. It is within our reach.”

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