MLB tendencies: Shohei Ohtani has a brand new pitch; Marlins narrowly keep away from report for offensive futility

Solely seven weeks stay within the 2022 MLB common season. The commerce deadline has handed and canine days of summer season have arrived, and shortly the postseason races (and the awards races) will actually warmth up. A dozen groups will play in October this yr and there is nonetheless loads of time for the races to get flipped upside-down. 

With that in thoughts, our bi-weekly collection breaking down varied tendencies throughout the league returns Wednesday with a take a look at the sport’s biggest expertise studying a brand new trick, one crew’s offensive futility, and the league-wide shutout tempo. Final time we regarded on the Rays botching the little issues, Chad Kuhl’s changes with the Rockies, and the Yankees chasing dwelling run historical past.

Ohtani’s new pitch

Two issues are true: Shohei Ohtani is just not having nearly as good a season in 2022 as he did in 2021, and Ohtani is having an unimaginable 2022 season. He’s on tempo for 8.1 WAR, a tick under final yr’s AL MVP-winning 9.zero WAR mark, thought the form of his manufacturing has modified. Pitcher Ohtani has surpassed Hitter Ohtani. The fast comparability:

Pitcher Ohtani unveiled a brand new toy Monday evening, when he held the Mariners to 2 runs in six innings whereas putting out eight. He used a sinking two-seam fastball for the primary time in his profession. Ohtani informed reporters, including The Athletic, he has been engaged on the pitch in bullpen periods, and eventually determined to take it into video games. 

Ohtani solely threw the sinker six occasions Monday, but it surely averaged 97.Three mph and topped out at 98.1 mph, and the motion was fairly a bit above common for high-velocity sinkers. The outcomes on the pitching weren’t nice — the six sinkers went for 4 balls, one swing and miss, and one floor out — although the speed and motion give the pitch promise.

Ohtani is a real five-pitch pitcher who throw all 5 pitches to each righties and lefties. He throws an upper-90s four-seam fastball, a splitter, a slider, a curveball, and a cutter. Now this new sinker provides him a sixth pitch. It is truthful to wonder if six pitches is just too many — why get beat in your fifth- or sixth-best pitch? — however with the Angels already out of the race, there is not any hurt in attempting it.

Elevated four-seam fastballs have been all the trend the previous couple of seasons. Pitching north-south was — and nonetheless is — very efficient, although all the things on this recreation is cyclical. Groups are beginning to gravitate again towards sinker and sliders (sweepers, actually) and a extra east-west assault. Ohtani has mastered the north-south method. The sinker may help him grasp east-west too.

I do not assume there is a extra gifted participant on the planet proper now than Ohtani. Performing in addition to he has on either side of the ball has by no means been finished earlier than, and it takes a novel degree of ability and aptitude. I totally count on him to grasp the sinker and switch it right into a viable weapon. It won’t occur immediately, studying a brand new pitch is difficult, however he would not have taken it right into a recreation if he wasn’t critical about incorporating it into his arsenal. Nearly as good as he’s, the brand new sinker reveals Ohtani remains to be working to get higher.

Marlins narrowly keep away from report for offensive futility

Protected to say this season has not gone based on plan for the Marlins. The membership invested closely (by their requirements, anyway) in its place participant core this previous offseason, and the consequence is likely one of the lowest-scoring offenses in baseball. The Marlins went into Tuesday’s motion averaging solely 3.73 runs per recreation. Solely the Tigers (3.19), Athletics (3.34), and Pirates (3.61) have been worse.

Tuesday evening’s win over the Padres (MIA 4, SD 3) ended a 16-game streak by which the Marlins scored not more than three runs. Even with the four-run outburst Tuesday, they’re averaging 2.00 runs per recreation of their final 17 video games, and of their final 30 video games, they’ve scored greater than three runs solely 5 occasions. Miami just lately tied a franchise report with a 37-inning scoreless streak. That is greater than 4 nine-inning video games.

The 16 straight video games with not more than three runs scored is tied for the seventh longest streak in a single season in historical past. Listed here are the highest six:

1. 1942 Cleveland: 19 straight video games with three or fewer runs (Aug. 9-26)
2. 1908 Dodgers: 17 (Could 24 to June 13)
3. 1908 Yankees: 17 (Sept. 20 to Oct. 7)
4. 1915 Yankees: 17 (Sept. 8-22)
5. 1919 Dodgers: 17 (Aug. 7-21)
6. 1969 Angels: 17 (Could 9-27)

It must be famous the Dodgers had a 19-game streak with not more than three runs scored spanning the tip of 1906 and begin of 1907, however we’re solely single-season streaks right here. By scoring 4 runs Tuesday, the Marlins narrowly prevented doing one thing that hasn’t been finished in additional than half a century. The highest spot on that record was only some days away.

What’s gone mistaken for the Marlins this yr? Nicely, rather a lot. For starters, their offseason pickups have all been busts. Not a single one is understanding wherever near as hoped. Have a look at these numbers:

There have been some accidents alongside the way in which (García and Soler are on the injured record proper now and Wendle missed a bit of the primary half with hamstring bother) and Wendle’s protection has been above common, however gosh, that’s approach too many empty plate appearances. The one greatest purpose the Marlins are mired on this depressing offensive stoop is their offseason additions going stomach up. To a person, they’ve fallen nicely wanting expectations.

Additionally, a number of incumbent gamers have taken steps again. Jesús Aguilar is having his worst full big-league season (.238/.288/.397). Miguel Rojas is just too (.238/.289/.339). Kids Jesús Sánchez (.205/.271/.387) and Bryan De La Cruz (.205/.249/.332) performed their approach again to Triple-A. Jazz Chisholm Jr. being restricted to 60 video games by a again damage hasn’t helped issues, however this Miami crew is just not one wholesome Chisholm away from being even a mean offensive membership.

The Marlins are seventh within the league in fewest runs allowed per recreation and so they have the NL Cy Younger favourite in Sandy Alcantara. The pitching is there, for many half. The offense although? It is from being postseason contender caliber, and it will not be a simple repair. They’re tied to their offseason pickups for a number of years and getting place participant prospects to take the subsequent step has been a problem. The offense is one thing GM Kim Ng and her employees should determine after the season.

Shutouts up league-wide

No, not particular person shutouts. These are nonetheless trending down. There have been solely six nine-inning full recreation shutouts this yr (Hunter Greene had a rain-shortened seven-inning shutout) and, barring a sudden spike in shutouts these previous couple of weeks, MLB will set a brand new report low for full recreation shutouts this yr. The leaderboard (ignoring the pandemic shortened 2020 season):

1. 2022: 6 nine-inning complete-game shutouts (on tempo for 9)
2. 2018: 18
3. 2021: 24
4. 2019: 25
5. 2017: 28

Pitchers are getting used much less and fewer as of late and full video games are rattling close to going extinct, so it’s no shock the final 5 162-game seasons are the 5 seasons with the fewest full recreation shutouts. There’s a very actual likelihood MLB doesn’t get to 10 nine-inning full recreation shutouts this yr. The decline in shutouts in precipitous.

Full recreation shutouts have gotten exceedingly uncommon. Workforce shutouts are alive and nicely, nonetheless. Actually, it has been a very long time since they’ve occurred this often. Going into Tuesday’s motion there have been 246 crew shutouts in 1,734 complete video games this yr. That is 14.19 p.c of all video games and one shutout each 7.05 video games, or roughly two an evening.

The crew shutout price has hovered within the 9 p.c to 11 p.c vary because the flip of the century, with a couple of scattered 12s and 13s. Final yr it was 12.31 p.c and in 2019 it was 11.03 p.c. Even within the weird 2020 season, the crew shutout price was a decidedly regular 11.14 p.c. Listed here are the final 5 seasons with crew shutout charges as excessive as 2022:

Groups averaged 4.07 runs per recreation in 2014 and the league hit .251/.314/.386 general. It was the worst offensive season in additional than twenty years and, given the rise in dwelling run charges in subsequent years, perhaps it spooked MLB into manufacturing a livelier baseball. I dunno. I do know this yr’s crew shutout price is roughly the identical as 2014, when offense was approach down.

I do assume there’s some correlation between the rise in crew shutouts and the decline in particular person shutouts. Groups are all about optimizing pitching matchup as of late. They do not let starters undergo the lineup a 3rd time and bullpen roles are much less inflexible, with matchups dictating utilization greater than, say, the inning. All of that’s meant to stifle the opposing offense. Do this and it equals fewer full video games, but in addition more practical pitching as a crew, and thus extra shutouts.

Full video games are neat and full recreation shutouts are a variety of enjoyable. There’s nothing fairly like pulling in your man to go the gap and beat the opposite crew himself. Workforce shutouts? Eh. They’re cool when your favourite crew is doing it, in any other case they are often kinda blah. Pretty or unfairly, they’re video games that are inclined to get chalked as much as poor hitting greater than nice pitching.

It is completely doable this yr’s crew shutout price is an anomaly — the years round 2014 did not have crew shutout charges almost as excessive — however it’s taking place. Groups are being shut out extra usually this season than at any level within the final eight years, and at a price that has been approached solely as soon as within the final 30 years. Full video games are down, however there are shutouts aplenty.