As the map of the United States glowed red and the blue wall fell in this week's election, the realization dawned in Canberra that economic issues were at the heart of this decisive vote of confidence in Donald Trump.
Among American voters, gender, race, socioeconomic background and political preferences appear to have faded in comparison to the widespread desire to punish governments that do not promise an adequate response to those struggling to make ends meet.
Therefore, expect Australia's political parties to tighten their messaging on the cost of living as they work to secure critical swing voters ahead of the next federal election.
First of all, Australia is not America
Any comparison between the US election and what will unfold in Australia necessarily comes with a series of caveats.
First, we have compulsory voting, so political messages are not intended to motivate turnout.
As a result, rhetoric is more muted and debates and policy proposals are less likely to be pushed to political extremes.
Theoretically, the mandatory system also makes polls more accurate, as there is no need to estimate turnout.
The way votes are cast and preferences flow in Australia is also in stark contrast to the American system.
And while Australian politicians will take notes of Trump's winning strategy, it's worth pointing out that a September poll conducted by the Lowy Institute showed more than as American president.
Economic issues are central
The economy was already central to Australia's major party campaigns, but now most other issues are likely to be reduced.
When political strategists talk about their campaign plan months before a formal election process, the main caveat is that they reveal only what they want to make public — even if they don't put their names to it.
Labor insiders say they will resist the temptation to focus on the culture and character of opposition leader Peter Dutton, pointing to the Democrats' lack of success in doing so with Donald Trump.
Instead, Labor will try to focus on the dollar signs.
The government will draw attention to this the significant drop in inflation, the support provided to help with energy bills and the cost of medicines, the lifting of the pay packets of those on low wages and which was an election promise.
Expect the will also appear, and the impact on the millions who will benefit from the
Dutton will be portrayed as siding with big business against the interests of workers.
On the other hand, the coalition will likely campaign against the financial pain caused by interest rates. The many Australians struggling with mortgage payments have put the opposition in what its strategists say is a competitive position.
The will be a central campaign feature.
Even though Australia doesn't have a land border or the kind of illegal migration that plagues the US, immigration is still a very effective campaign issue for the coalition.
Labour's decision to allow this has only served to fuel negative community sentiment.
Reproductive rights is an area of Republican campaigns that the opposition is keen to minimize, despite a willingness in some corners of the party to bring it to the political center stage.
Dutton's leadership group has sent a strong message internally that making abortion laws a federal election issue will lose them votes.
But they also know that some will maintain their willingness to promote that position, and that won't hurt their engagement with certain religious and conservative voters they want to keep on their side.
The opposition is also trying to soften its national security message somewhat to both maintain pressure on China while gaining more support in Australia's Chinese diaspora communities, especially in hyper-marginal electorates.
The coalition's rhetoric about the Chinese government was misinterpreted as an attack on Chinese Australians. .
Both major parties are increasingly embracing social media – a strategy that has proven increasingly important in winning political contests in the US elections.
Despite Dutton's criticism of the Chinese government and calls from his party to ban officials from TikTok, Dutton now posts on the popular video platform.
The world of social media influencers will inevitably play a role in the campaign, but celebrities like Jennifer Lopez, Beyoncé and Oprah have not really helped Democrats win over the kind of voters Labor needs to reach, and could instead be alienating.
Reaching the working class
Headlines and meeting audiences where they are actually watching will be key. The so-called working class has limited and shrinking time to deal with policy details. Research shows that they are often too busy working, supporting their families and paying the bills.
Pollster and analyst Kos Samaras of Redbridge Group points to a major problem for the Albanian government.
“Low-income communities, including diverse communities, are struggling to address everything the federal government has done to help them through the crisis,” he said, citing Redbridge's focus group studies.
“Therefore, they feel strongly that the government has been absent at a time of great need.”
The opposition has already used the same argument that was so successful for Trump: that life was better when he was last in power.
Dutton maintains the same premise, which resonates. People tell pollsters that they work just as hard, but feel worse off than when the coalition was in power.
Labor must find a way to convince people that progress has been made and the opposition would send the nation backwards.
Both sides also face another risk: that more Australians will opt out of political debate altogether.
DEKYAS NEWS World Breaking News and Trusted Source
