Cholera cases explode after extreme rainfall, fueled by climate change in West and Central Africa

In West and Central Africa, recent heavy rains and floods show that climate change is one more inch on a scale already burdened by war and disease.

New research suggests that extreme weather events in Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger last month – which killed more than a thousand people and displaced hundreds of thousands more – were exacerbated by climate change, accelerating an already devastating cholera outbreak spread.

One finding from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) study, which compared recent weather with weather patterns in a world without human-induced climate change, suggested that Sudan could expect these types of weather events every three years.

“The majority of climate models we’ve looked at indicate a trend towards more extreme rainfall in this region,” explains Clair Barnes, a statistician at WWA and research fellow at Imperial College London.

Experts say the repeated blows from these storms undermine any chance of recovery and deepen existing vulnerabilities within communities.

“You’re going to find that people’s capabilities to respond to these floods become quite low, especially when they happen so often,” said Joyce Kimutai, co-author of the WWA study and a researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy. Imperial College. London.

Cholera cases are exploding

Intensified rainfall and flooding increase the spread of water-borne diseases such as cholera. More than 350 people have died from the disease in Nigeria this year – 150 of them in the past month. according to the World Health Organization. The country was already dealing with an outbreak at the beginning of June.

In Sudan, which is in the grip of warring rival military factions, more than 15,000 cases and more than 400 deaths have been reported in the past month.

“Let’s call it what it is: this is a disease of poverty,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital, adding that conflict-related displacement, lack of access to good hygiene, sanitation and infrastructure for clean water all lead to the “perfect setup for waterborne outbreaks.”

Cholera kills by rapid dehydration via profuse watery diarrhea. Although some people can recover by drinking the right fluids, some may need intravenous help or even antibiotics. Oral vaccines also exist, but according to the WHO, the global supply is currently exhausted.

Bogoch attributes this to an overwhelming global need in recent years. He says there needs to be recognition that climate change is making the situation worse.

“If we start to see more outbreaks and those outbreaks get bigger, we’re going to need more vaccines to deploy,” Bogoch said.

How often will rain and floods occur?

The WWA research found that months-long periods of heavy rain have become common in Sudan. This type of extreme weather is expected to occur every three years in the current climate, and will be 10 percent more severe due to climate change.

Moreover, the rainfall that hit Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad this year, along with Sudan, was similar to what the region experienced in 2022. WWA studied that previous rainfall and found that rain is now five to 20 percent heavier due to climate change.

The researchers did not do a new attribution analysis for the four countries except Sudan because the results would be similar to the 2022 study. They said the rain and flooding in the region is to be expected because their previous research showed similar heavy rainfall in current climate will occur on average every five to ten years.

“This is only going to get worse if we continue to burn fossil fuels,” Barnes told reporters at a news conference. The study’s estimates are based on the current climate, which is on average 1.3 degrees warmer than in pre-industrial times.

“If we reach two degrees Celsius, which is expected to happen as early as the 2050s, these types of downpours could happen every year,” Barnes warned.

Will countries be able to recover?

As climate disasters become more frequent, countries also lose the time they need to recover from one before the next occurs.

“In Nigeria, many of the hardest-hit areas have yet to fully recover from the 2022 floods… demonstrating a cyclical pattern of vulnerability,” said Maja Vahlberg, WWA team member and technical advisor at the Red Crescent Crotch. .

What complicates matters further is that the right solutions may not even exist in these countries right now. Jola Ajibade, who studies climate risks and vulnerable populations at Emory University, says an example of this is basic funding to rebuild homes after a disaster.

“There is certainly no insurance for people in informal settlements, who are among the largest groups affected by floods and storms,” Ajibade said, suggesting microinsurance and ways to climate-proof these houses, which are often made from weaker houses. , malleable materials.

But she warns that reconstruction without consultation at every step could lead to more displacement.

“The traditional argument is ‘let’s get rid of people, let’s redesign this place and make it livable and safe,’” Ajibade said, explaining that people move and often cannot afford to return a newly rebuilt community. .

“It has become a form of climate gentrification.”

On the health care side, another challenge is that where these outbreaks have occurred – in low-income regions or places where conflict is taking place – they are less equipped to deal with public health emergencies in the first place.

With limited resources, it becomes especially important to figure out when and how these future outbreaks will happen so that money and aid can be sent to the most important places.

Caroline Wagner, an assistant professor of bioengineering at McGill University, studies the routes of transmission of various diseases – and in particular how climate change will affect the spread of diseases.

“We need to sort them out if we want to prepare for something like cholera in the future,” she said.

“So let’s say we know that the reach of dengue, Zika and malaria is going to grow in some way, then I think we need to equip the new frontiers of where these diseases are going with the right public health infrastructure to ensure that to manage.” Or invest in hospitals and healthcare infrastructure that are better able to withstand extreme flooding or weather events.”