BC plans for worst-case scenario if Chilcotin River landslide erupts

Rivers can be a nice place to escape the summer heat.

This August long weekend, British Columbia authorities are warning residents and visitors to stay away from the Chilcotin and Fraser Rivers due to possible flooding from a landslide in the central interior.

Emergency reports remain in effect Saturday morning due to the remote but massive landslide blocking the Chilcotin River.

The landslide occurred Wednesday about 100 km southwest of Williams Lake and dammed the river, temporarily creating a lake about 11 km long.


Click to play video: 'Downstream Impact of Chilcotin River Landslide'


Downstream impact of Chilcotin River landslide


The landslide is 22 km upstream of the Farwell Canyon Bridge, which is approximately 82 km from Williams Lake. The Chilcotin River ultimately feeds the Fraser River.

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There are fears that if the dam suddenly breaks, the water downstream could be disastrous.

“We cannot stress enough how important it is that people living in the area and downstream of the landslide remain vigilant and stay away from the river for their own safety,” said Nathan Cullen, the province’s Minister of Water and Land Resources.

Bowinn Ma, British Columbia’s Minister of Emergency Management, says the best-case scenario is a gradual clearing (water flowing over the top of the dam), which prevents flood debris from entering the river.

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However, both Ma and the BC River Forecast Centre say they are considering the worst-case scenario: a dam bursting, causing water from the Chilcotin to flow into the Fraser River.

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The province issued an emergency warning Friday evening, warning people on the Chilcotin River or along the banks between the Hanceville Bridge and the Fraser River to evacuate immediately.


Click to play video: 'Landslide threatens salmon migration'


Landslide threatens salmon migration


Dwayne Tannant, a geotechnical engineering professor at UBC Okanagan, says the water “will erode and cut through the dam, likely releasing a significant amount of water.”

“It all depends on Mother Nature,” added Margo Wagner, chair of the Cariboo Regional District. “We can’t stress enough how important it is for people to stay off the banks of the Chilcotin River.”

Wagner says the banks around the Chilcotin River are made of sand and limestone and have been affected by wildfires.

“So the ground is quite porous and the concern is that the flow of water – whether the dam breaks or the water flows over it – could cause other landslides,” Wagner said.

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“We’ve been talking to the ranchers along the Chilcotin about getting their cattle off the banks and making sure everyone is as safe as possible.”


Click to play video: 'UK landslide: Chilcotin River likely to overflow dam'


British Columbia landslide: Chilcotin River likely to overflow dam


According to the River Forecast Centre, their models indicate that if this happens, the Chilcotin River will be well above its maximum spring water level until it reaches the Fraser River. The estimated water level in the Fraser, on the other hand, will be below its usual spring water levels.

Ma says they are sending flood preparedness equipment and sandbags to some communities along the Fraser River and are making plans in case some communities need to be evacuated, although that is unlikely.

The federal fisheries department is also monitoring the situation. There are currently adult Chinook and sockeye salmon in the river and they will likely be affected by the blockage.

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Wagner added: “It’s best to stay off the Fraser and certainly off the Chilcotin because that’s the river that’s going to be affected first.”

with files from the Canadian Press

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Doyle Potenteau

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