Key points
- US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to declare a ceasefire in Lebanon.
- A White House national security spokesperson has said, “We are close,” but “nothing will be done until everything is done.”
- Israel's security cabinet will meet on Tuesday evening to vote on the proposed ceasefire.
Israel's security cabinet will meet Tuesday evening to vote on a proposed ceasefire in Lebanon's war with Hezbollah, an official said, as the White House expressed optimism that a deal was close.
The United States, the European Union and the United Nations have in recent days urged a ceasefire in the long-running hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which escalated into a full-scale war in late September.
As negotiations for a ceasefire intensified, Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli strikes on Monday killed at least 31 people, mostly in the south.
An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the security cabinet “will decide on the ceasefire on Tuesday evening.” With time differences, the decision can be expected between 3am and 8am AEDT on Wednesday.
The deal, brokered by France and the US, was expected to be announced by Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron, four key Lebanese sources told Reuters on Monday.
In Washington, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said, “We're close,” but “nothing will be done until everything is done.”
The French presidency said ceasefire talks had made significant progress in getting Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel to end fighting that broke out in October 2023, in parallel .
Netanyahu's office declined to comment on reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the text of a deal, but a senior Israeli official told Reuters that those present at Tuesday's cabinet meeting planned to approve the text.
Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said Israel would retain the ability to attack southern Lebanon under any agreement. Lebanon has previously objected to formulations that would grant Israel such a right.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the gap between the two sides had narrowed significantly, but steps still needed to be taken to reach an agreement.
“Often the very last stages of an agreement are the most difficult because the most difficult issues are postponed until the end,” he said. “We're pushing as hard as we can.”
In Beirut, Lebanon's deputy speaker of parliament, Elias Bou Saab, told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles left” to implementing a US-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless Netanyahu changes his mind.”
He said the proposal would involve an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops would be deployed within 60 days to the border area, long a Hezbollah stronghold.
A sticking point over who would monitor ceasefire compliance was resolved in the past 24 hours with an agreement to create a five-nation commission including France and chaired by the US, he said.
'No excuse' to reject deal: EU foreign policy chief
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Tuesday that the proposal “gives Israel all the security obligations it asked for” and that it had “no excuse” to reject it.
“I heard voices from the extremist ministers of the Israeli government who were ready to continue the fight, ready to continue the bombing,” Borrell told journalists on the sidelines of a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in near Rome.
“Let's hope that Netanyahu's government will approve the ceasefire agreement today… No more excuses. No more additional requests. Stop this fighting. Stop killing people,” he said.
Borrell also criticized what he saw as Western double standards for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict.
“You cannot applaud when the court turns against Putin and remain silent when the court turns against Netanyahu,” he said, urging European Union member states to support the ICC.
News of the security cabinet meeting came as the Israeli military said it had carried out a wave of attacks on Monday, including on the southern outskirts of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold that Israel has bombed repeatedly since late September, when it began its air campaign escalated in Lebanon.
The latest attacks hit about 20 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon in one hour, the army said. A statement said that “command centers and intelligence control and collection centers, where Hezbollah commanders and operatives were stationed” were targeted.
The Lebanese Health Ministry said Israeli attacks killed 31 people and injured 62 across the country on Monday. More than 3,750 people have been killed and more than a million driven from their homes in the past year, according to the ministry, which makes no distinction between civilians and combatants in its figures.
Over the weekend, Israel launched powerful airstrikes, killing at least 29 people in central Beirut, while Hezbollah
Meanwhile, the Israeli military has reported that Hezbollah has fired ten rockets from Lebanon into Israel's Western Galilee region in the past 24 hours.
Some missiles were intercepted, while others landed in the area, the IDF said, according to BBC reports. The Israeli ambulance service said two people – a 70-year-old woman and an 80-year-old man – were injured by shrapnel in the attack.
Hezbollah has not yet commented on the attack.
Israel has dealt Hezbollah major blows, and other top commanders, and wreaking massive destruction in areas of Lebanon where the group holds sway.
Israel says its military offensive is aimed at allowing tens of thousands of Israelis to return to the homes they evacuated when Hezbollah began firing into Israel across the Lebanese border more than a year ago.
Hezbollah's campaign followed the who precipitated the Gaza war.
Hezbollah attacks have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights and during fighting in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.
Distrust about deal
The Biden administration, which leaves office in January, has emphasized diplomacy to end the conflict in Lebanon even as all negotiations to stop the parallel war in Gaza have been frozen.
US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk will be in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss using a possible ceasefire in Lebanon as a catalyst for an agreement ending hostilities in Gaza, the White House said.
Diplomacy over Lebanon has done that which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
It requires Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters about 30 kilometers from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River, and the regular Lebanese army to penetrate the border area.
Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to implement this in the past; Israel says a new ceasefire should allow it to attack any Hezbollah fighters or weapons south of the river.
An agreement could expose divisions in Netanyahu's right-wing government. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel must continue the war until “absolute victory.”
Addressing Netanyahu on X, he said: “It is not too late to stop this deal!”
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