Max Verstappen is F1 champion again, but the 2025 season already looks wide open

LAS VEGAS — Max Verstappen's fourth world championship, secured on Saturday evening under the neon lights of Las Vegas Boulevard, has cemented his place among Formula 1's all-time greats.

This was a championship victory unlike his previous three. In 2021, he went toe-to-toe with Lewis Hamilton over the course of the season, demolishing the pair in direct combat. 2022 and 2023 were years of dominance for Verstappen, with any threat to his supremacy proving fleeting at best.

2024 was different, even though the year started the way 2023 ended. Verstappen dominated early, but Red Bull lost its position as pace setter. Not just one, but three teams – McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes – emerged as persistent threats. Red Bull's slump, and especially its impact on Sergio Pérez's form, is on the verge of costing him the constructors' championship for the first time since 2021.

Seven different drivers have achieved victories this year. While Verstappen's immense power has seen him over the line to secure the championship, the fiercer competition is a harbinger of what to expect in 2025. Given the stability of the regulations and the need for teams to put as much time and effort as possible into the complete revision of the rules. for 2026, most expect the pecking order to remain largely the same: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes – and then everyone else.

In terms of title defense, 2025 is already shaping up to be an even bigger test for Verstappen.

Is Lando Norris the (way too) early favorite?

F1 has long longed for this kind of open, close competition at the front of the pack. The cost cap, which was introduced in 2021 to promote financial stability, has made it harder for teams to get out of trouble. Upgrades and car development must be carefully planned.

McLaren's rise over the past two seasons, which could culminate in its first constructors' title in 26 years, is proof of how to get things right. Every update added to the MCL38 car in 2024 has delivered a step forward in performance, giving Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri the chance to battle at the front on a regular basis.

In 2024, Lando Norris has proven himself as a constant threat to Verstappen. (Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Norris took advantage of this to create the most serious threat to Verstappen. Norris' first chance to properly compete in a title fight came with hard lessons to learn. The Briton, often his own fiercest critic, took full responsibility – perhaps even too much – for mistakes during the year that temporarily eased the pressure on Verstappen.

Norris is likely to go into 2025 as the championship favorite based on his form after McLaren took a big step forward with its car around Miami. Since the start of the second half of the season in Hungary, he has beaten Verstappen and scored dominant victories at Zandvoort and in Singapore in a manner reminiscent of Verstappen in the past two years.

It has proven to Norris that, in his words, “I have what it takes” to fight for a championship. He admitted on Wednesday in Las Vegas that he was “definitely not at the level I needed to be at the beginning of the year,” only to deliver “by far some of the best performances I've done in the second half of the year.” ”. the season.

Norris explained that this would also lead to a very different approach to that of all of McLaren in 2025. No more chasing, it would “go into a season with the mentality of let's try to win it,” he said. “It's a very different mentality than what we had this year.” The reset of a new season could be big for Norris.

But he is not the only McLaren driver considering a title bid.

Only in his second season did Piastri justify McLaren fighting so hard for his services in 2022. While his first win in Hungary came under strange circumstances as McLaren stressed team orders, the way he controlled procedures in Baku proved his star. quality. There is still a step forward in form – Norris leads qualifying 18-4 – to really match Norris, but the positive signs are there.

Just as he has done in recent months, Verstappen may have to fend off a two-pronged McLaren threat in 2025.

Hamilton and Leclerc should form a powerful duo at Ferrari next season. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images)

Hamilton's hunt for an eighth title is renewed at Ferrari

Hamilton's long, successful Mercedes career is nearing a disappointing end. Months removed from the emotional high of ending his victory drought at Silverstone and inheriting victory at Spa, he admitted to Sky after the race in Brazil, where he struggled to P10, that he could “enjoy going on holiday.”

The impending switch to Ferrari for 2025 might have seemed wrong a few months ago. Mercedes was on the rise during the European summer races, and Ferrari experienced a dip in form. Those roles have been reversed since the break in August, to the extent that Ferrari is now chasing McLaren for the constructors' title. Mercedes is 175 points behind Hamilton's future team.

Hamilton recently admitted that he is keeping a close eye on Ferrari's progress, even as his focus remains on finishing in fashion at Mercedes. Regardless of the outcome of the constructors' battle, Ferrari should pose a threat to win races from early next year, leaving Hamilton hopeful he could challenge for a record-breaking eighth drivers' title.

The other dynamic of interest to Hamilton's Ferrari move is how he will fare against Charles Leclerc, a driver believed to be of championship-winning caliber if given the right car.

Leclerc has been the leader at Ferrari for some time and it is not without reason that he has a long-term contract. Wins at Monaco, Monza and Austin have made this his most successful season yet, and without Ferrari's mid-season slump there's good reason to think Leclerc would have been as big, if not a bigger, threat to Verstappen as Norris .

Much of the focus will be on Hamilton when he switches to Ferrari early next year and whether this could be the turning point that gives him a final string of success to cap off his trophy-laden F1 career. But Leclerc is also ready to fight for a championship. Amid the inevitable debate over Hamilton's level of performance towards the end of this year as he approaches his 40th birthday, comparing the two Ferrari drivers will be illuminating.

Either way, Verstappen will have to keep an eye on the red cars in his mirrors next year.

And what about Mercedes?

Hamilton's recent disappointing form is not being felt by the Mercedes team. George Russell felt he could have won the rainy race in Brazil without stopping at the red flag, and he took pole in Las Vegas after the team completed practice.

George Russell has proven he is more than capable of carrying Mercedes in 2025. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

It reminded us that if Mercedes does everything right, it can still threaten Ferrari and McLaren. Russell will enter 2025 as team leader for the first time when 18-year-old Mercedes protégé Andrea Kimi Antonelli joins him. Despite the hype surrounding Antonelli, expectations for his rookie season will understandably need to be managed, meaning Russell will obviously be expected to spearhead his efforts.

The challenge for Mercedes will be to finally put an end to the problems with its car under this generation of regulations. Since 2022, it has failed to consistently fight at the front, with form blowing from hot to cold, sometimes from session to session.

Finally understanding that in the final year of the regulatory cycle would be too little too late, but it could at least provide some hope of getting back into the title mix.

Verstappen will remain very difficult to beat

The potential of all three teams to take on Red Bull in 2025 is tempting. But we have to take into account how strong Verstappen will be next year anyway.

He proved in the second half of 2024 that even without the fastest car he is still capable of achieving big results and fighting against the likes of Leclerc, Norris and Russell. Red Bull tried to understand the balance issues that emerged mid-season with the Austin update package, which provided some encouragement. If it can completely solve that for next year and restore Verstappen's confidence in the car, he can go one step further.

That remained the biggest challenge for Norris. Regardless of relative car performance, anyone looking to dethrone Verstappen would still have to beat him.

Max Verstappen will aim for his fifth career championship in 2025. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

“I don't think you'll ever get a much better driver than Max in Formula 1 again,” said Norris. “That's my opinion, but that's what I believe in and to go against that belief, to fight that person who I know is so good, it takes a little more than what I've probably achieved this season.

“But I think what I've done since the summer holidays is closer to what I need to be, and I think that's almost good enough to fight for next year.”

Carlos Sainz, the outgoing Ferrari driver, will likely have to watch the main battle from afar in 2025 when he switches to Williams. But he was excited about how this season ended.

“It just shows that it can go either way,” said Sainz. “If you have four teams within two tenths and they have a whole winter to work on the car and improve the car, those two tenths can quickly switch and create another favorite. So as far as I'm concerned, all four teams could be in contention.”

Speaking to the post-race broadcast, with the iconic Fountains of Bellagio in Las Vegas behind him, F1's four-time reigning champion acknowledged the challenge ahead of him to defend his throne.

“If you look at next year, I think it will be a real battle between many cars,” said Verstappen.

Top photo: Getty Images; Design: Kelsea Petersen/The Athletics