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The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is undoubtedly Israel’s most high-profile assassination.
Far less ambiguous is how the death of Israel’s archenemy will change the dynamics of the country’s numerous confrontations with adversaries on its borders that the charismatic leader of the Lebanon-based Shiite militant group commanded or lent his support to.
“This is not the first political leader to be assassinated in the Middle East, and this has never stopped or solved anything,” said Dimitri Diliani, a Palestinian activist from East Jerusalem and spokesman for the Fatah Reformist Democratic Faction.
An Israeli observer put it differently, but nevertheless reiterated a similar warning.
“It’s a big blow,” said Yoram Schweitzer, a former Israeli lieutenant colonel and intelligence officer who now works at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think tank.
“But I don’t want to underestimate Hezbollah’s ability to try to recover because it has large ammunition depots and [the organization] has still not been destroyed.”
Key figure behind the growth of Hezbollah
Nasrallah, 64, led Hezbollah – which Canada and many other Western countries have labeled the country a terrorist entity for more than thirty years.
Nasrallah inherited the top job in 1992 after Israeli Apache helicopters unleashed missiles on the motorcade of his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, resulting in his death.
With armaments, extensive fundraising and political support from Iran’s anti-Western Islamist government, Nasrallah would build Hezbollah into the most powerful militia in the Middle East – often referred to as a state within a state – with a powerful arsenal of long-term weapons. -to spread weapons and become an important part of Lebanon’s political fabric.
After Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel from Gaza on October 7, Nasrallah pledged his support for their cause. As Israel launched powerful airstrikes on Gaza, followed by a ground invasion, Hezbollah joined the fight, albeit on a limited basis, by targeting military facilities in Israel’s north.
Israel claims that Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets, rockets and grenades across the border into northern parts of Israel over the past year, driving about 60,000 Israelis from their homes.
Two weeks ago, the Israeli war cabinet spoke made the decision to move its main theater of military operations from Gaza to the north, making the return of those residents one of its new war targets.
It began with an unprecedented stealth operation that detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies across Lebanon and parts of Syria, many of them used by Hezbollah members.
At least 32 people were killed and more than 3,000 Lebanese were injured, including many children, in the attack that sparked widespread international criticism and was labeled an act of terror by opponents.
That operation was followed by an intensive series of airstrikes that killed more than a dozen senior Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon and Beirut, but also killed more than 720 people, most of them civilians.
Amir Atari and his family are among some 60,000 Israelis driven from their homes in the north as a result of Hezbollah rocket fire that followed the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks.
Fears that leader’s murder will lead to ‘retaliation’
The final blow came Friday evening when Israeli warplanes leveled a cluster of apartment buildings in southern Beirut, where Nasrallah and at least some of his remaining commanders met deep underground.
It is still unclear how many civilians were killed in the building collapse, but on Saturday afternoon, Israel time, Hezbollah confirmed that Nasrallah’s body had been found among the rubble.
As tensions rise along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, a top Israeli official says troops are preparing for a possible ground invasion targeting Hezbollah military outposts. Andrew Chang explains what a full-scale invasion would look like and why many world leaders fear the worst. Images provided by Getty Images and Reuters.
“Nasrallah was one of Israel’s greatest enemies of all time,” said Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). “His elimination makes the world a safer place.”
While the Iran-backed Hezbollah is mainly Shiite, Nasrallah had aligned the group with the Sunni-dominated Palestinian struggle for statehood and an end to Israel’s occupation of the West Bank. He also had a loose alliance with Hamas in Gaza, both of whom saw Israel as a common enemy.
“We are not about being sad or happy,” Diliani, the Palestinian activist, said of Nasrallah’s death.
“It won’t affect anything on the ground because there is more than one capable leader who will come and take [Nasrallah’s] place. But it will lead to retaliation and more innocent people being victimized.”
Within hours of Hezbollah confirming Nasrallah’s death, there were already indications his cousin, Hashem Safieddine, the current leader of the group’s executive council, was preparing to take over the top position.
Air raid sirens also blared throughout northern Israel throughout the day, with the IDF confirming more than 70 incoming attacks from Lebanon.
Other reviews from outside the immediate region also warned against writing off the group.
“Hezbollah will not disappear overnight as a major player in Lebanon and the region, despite the blows it has suffered,” said Burcu Ozcelik of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a military and strategic think tank based in London.
“The militant group may believe that it is no longer restrained, given the targets of its higher chain of command, and that it must act decisively or it may not survive.”
It is believed that Hezbollah still has dozens of highly destructive long-range ballistic missiles and thousands of other missiles that could easily target Israeli communities, but the country has yet to launch them, either for fear of even worse Israeli retaliation or because of damage from Israeli bombing.
The most immediate consequence of Nasrallah’s death may be a reconsideration of a possible Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, which numerous senior Israeli military officials have hinted could be imminent.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Hezbollah must be pushed back north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon and has been the subject of controversial negotiations with the United Nations and the Lebanese government for years.
Schweitzer, a senior research fellow at INSS, said killing Nasrallah could reduce the chances of Israeli soldiers crossing the border.
“If Israel … is effective and continues to have these kinds of successes and hit these targets, it could reduce the need for a ground maneuver, especially not a deep one,” he told CBC News in an interview.
Gaza residents react to Nasrallah’s death
Iran, which has invested billions of dollars in building Hezbollah’s capabilities for decades, will also have to decide its next steps.
“Iran’s interests are much broader than Hezbollah’s and Hezbollah works for Iran – it’s not the other way around,” Dilani said.
He considers it very unlikely that Iran will choose to engage directly with Israel.
In Gaza, where a year of Israeli bombing has killed more than 41,000 people and paralyzed large swathes of territory, several people told a videographer working for CBC News that while they were disappointed that Nasrallah had been killed, they didn’t think that this would change. a lot for them.
“I don’t think killing Nasrallah will change anything in the war with Gaza,” said Marwan Siba, 41. “Israel is fighting them independently.”
Others said the Palestinians have lost an important ally.
“Nasrallah is on the same side and has never abandoned the Palestinian people,” said Moati Abu Musabah, 45. “This is a great loss.”
