Japanese voters have gone to the polls to decide the fate of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government, in an election expected to punish his coalition over a funding scandal and inflation, potentially ending a decade of dominance for his Liberal Democratic Party.
The LDP and its long-time partner Komeito will face a drubbing from voters on Sunday, with the coalition possibly losing its parliamentary majority, opinion polls show, as Japan struggles with rising costs of living and increasingly strained relations with neighboring China .
Losing the majority in the House of Commons would force Ishiba, who has been in power for only a month, into power-sharing negotiations with smaller parties, creating uncertainty in some policy areas – although no poll predicted the LDP from power would be put.
Indeed, the LDP will easily remain the largest force in parliament, polls show, but it could lose many votes to the number two party, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which toppled the LDP in 2009, according to the Asahi , who estimates that the CDPJ could win as many as 140 seats.
The LDP has historically been one of the most successful parties in the democratic world, a one-size-fits-all electoral machine that has held power in all but four of the past 69 years.
What is the LDP and why is it so successful?
The Liberal Democratic Party began in 1955 as a merger between two conservative parties and governed continuously until 1993, overseeing a massive expansion of the economy and living standards.
During the Cold War, the United States – which still has 54,000 troops in Japan – funneled millions of dollars into the party as a bulwark against communism.
During this time, the smaller Japanese Socialist Party largely acted as an inspector of the government’s actions, rather than seeking to gain power itself.
In addition, the LDP attracted a variety of special interests, including agricultural and business lobbies and religious groups – resulting in multiple cases of corruption.
Beneath the surface lies fierce rivalry between the factions, resulting in frequent changes of leader – 27 since 1955 – acting as a proxy for changes in government.
All leaders have been men, and fewer than 10 percent of current MPs are women.
In 2021, women were invited to important party meetings but were not allowed to speak.
Shigeru Ishiba (right) replaced Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister of Japan. Source: AAP, AP / Hiro Komae
The party generally leans toward large government spending, market-friendly economic policies, socially conservative values, and a robust alliance with the United States.
But it’s a big tent, bringing together proponents of big government, political doves focused on economic growth, and nationalists pushing traditional family values.
When did the LDP lose power?
The LDP was removed from power for the first time in 1993, following the dramatic bursting of Japan’s asset bubble in the 1980s and a corruption scandal.
But the fragile coalition government of small groups, including several LDP defectors, lasted less than a year, and the party was back in power in 1994.
In 2009, the LDP lost power again in a landslide and was replaced for three chaotic years by the center-left Democratic Party of Japan.
The DPJ’s failed policies and its clumsy response to the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster allowed the LDP under Shinzo Abe to return to power in late 2012.
Shinzo Abe was Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister. Source: MONKEY / AP
Why is the LDP popular?
The LDP remains associated with the postwar economic miracle, especially among older voters in rural areas, says Tomoaki Iwai of Nihon University.
Japan’s electoral system also favors the well-funded and well-organized LDP, with a national network of supporters and special interests.
“It’s kind of a chicken-and-egg question; whether industrial groups are behind the LDP because they are in power, or whether the LDP was able to bring them in and therefore have power,” said Rintaro Nishimura of consultancy The Asia. Group Japan.
The system has prevented smaller parties from remaining in government for long periods of time. “But whether that is a healthy democracy… Perhaps the time has come for Japan to fully examine itself,” said Yu Uchiyama of the University of Tokyo.
What could happen next?
The LDP has been back in power since 2012 in coalition with Komeito, a moderate party backed by the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after voters’ dissatisfaction with inflation and a new scandal .
Kishida, who was in power for three years, replaced Yoshihide Suga, who in turn succeeded Shinzo Abe, known for his nationalist views and “Abenomics”.
Ishiba announced early elections, but polls suggest the LDP, and possibly the LDP and Komeito together, would fall short of a majority.
But even if this causes the LDP to lose power — unlikely given the divided opposition — it will come back soon, Uchiyama said.
“It is very difficult to predict. But time and time again, voters punish the LDP and ultimately return to the party,” he said.
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